Mortgage News

Market Comment - Week of January 31st, 2011
Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower. There were several Treasury auctions and most resulted in decent foreign demand. Stock strength the middle of the week along with higher than expected new home sales put some upward pressure on rates. Volatile oil prices also factored into trading. Saudi remarks indicated they might increase production. This helped stem some of the oil price spikes in the middle of the week but world benchmark prices remained near the $100/barrel mark and US benchmark prices were near $90/barrel as unrest in Egypt continued. Stock weakness and weaker than expected GDP figures led to rate improvements Friday afternoon. Mortgage bonds ended the week positive by about 1/8 to 1/4 of a discount point despite the continued market swings.

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Economic Factors
Economic Indicator	Release Date Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays	Monday, Jan. 31, 2011	Up 0.3%, Up 0.4%	Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation	Monday, Jan. 31, 2011	Up 0.1%	Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weakness may help rates improve.
Construction Spending	Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2011	Up 0.3%	Low importance. An indication of economic strength. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index	Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2011	56.5	Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment	Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2011	240k	Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
Revised Q4 Productivity	Thursday, Feb. 3, 2011	Up 2.4%	Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims	Thursday, Feb. 3, 2011	444k	Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Employment	Friday, Feb. 4, 2011	9.5%, Payrolls up 85k	Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.

ISM

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM), releases the "Report on Business" on the first working day of each month. Part of this report is the "diffusion index," which tracks the economy's ups and downs fairly well.

In conducting this survey, the ISM questions purchasing executives from over 250 industrial companies compiling data on production, orders, commodity prices, inventories, vendor performance, and employment. Each of the respondents is asked to rank the categories as "up" or "down." Various weights are applied to the individual components to form the composite index.

A composite index reading of 50 can be thought of as a "swing point." A reading above 50 implies an increase in economic activity, while a reading below 50 indicates a decline. The ISM report is difficult for economists to forecast because there is little data upon which to base an educated guess. The report has a large "surprise factor" and can cause market swings.

-WR Starkey

Mortgage news- Rates are slowly rising!

Market Comment - Week of January 24th, 2011
Mortgage bond prices started in negative territory and that carried through most of the week. Spain and Portugal had relatively successful bond auctions, which reversed the flight to quality buying of US debt instruments that helped rates fall. Lower than expected weekly jobless claims Thursday added to the losses causing rates to spike higher. Analysts were looking for jobless claims at 425k and the actual release showed claims at 404k. Leading economic indicators were higher than expected with an increase of 1% compared to the anticipated 0.6% increase. Mortgage bonds ended the week negative by about a full discount point.

The Fed meeting will take center stage this week. Look for the continued Treasury auctions to also factor into mortgage interest rate changes.

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Economic Factors
Economic Indicator	Release Date Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Consumer Confidence	Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011	54.2	Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction	Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011	None	Important. $35 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
New Home Sales	Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2011	300k	Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction	Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2011	None	Important. $35 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns	Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2011	None	Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Weekly Jobless Claims	Thursday, Jan. 27, 2011	425k	Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Durable Goods Orders	Thursday, Jan. 27, 2011	1.9%	Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Advance Q4 GDP	Friday, Jan. 28, 2011	3.8%	Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Fed Focus

The United States central bank, the Federal Reserve, coordinates the borrowing and lending activities of federally chartered banks. The principal reason the Federal Reserve was created was to reduce severe financial crises. One way of accomplishing this goal is to control the amount of money that flows through the economy. By manipulating the US money supply, the Fed influences inflation, unemployment, and the level of US economic activity. The Fed has a variety of tools that it uses to control the money supply, but its chief policy tool is the manipulation of short-term interest rates.

No rate changes are expected at the Wednesday meeting but there is concern about the future considering the Dallas and Kansas City Federal Reserve banks requested a discount point hike.

-W.R. Starkey Newsletter

5 Factors That Decide Your Credit Score

Credit scores range between 200 and 800, with scores above 620 considered desirable for obtaining a mortgage. The following factors affect your score:

1. Your payment history. Did you pay your credit card obligations on time? If they were late, then how late? Bankruptcy filing, liens, and collection activity also impact your history.

2. How much you owe.  If you owe a great deal of money on numerous accounts, it can indicate that you are overextended. However, it’s a good thing if you have a good proportion of balances to total credit limits.

3. The length of your credit history. In general, the longer you have had accounts opened, the better. The average consumer's oldest obligation is 14 years old, indicating that he or she has been managing credit for some time, according to Fair Isaac Corp., and only one in 20 consumers have credit histories shorter than 2 years.

4. How much new credit you have. New credit, either installment payments or new credit cards, are considered more risky, even if you pay them promptly.

5. The types of credit you use. Generally, it’s desirable to have more than one type of credit — installment loans, credit cards, and a mortgage, for example.

For more on evaluating and understanding your credit score, visit www.myfico.com.

ONE WORD THAT WILL CHANGE YOUR LIFE-Jon Gordon

My friends Dan Britton and Jimmy Page believe that one word can change our life. Dan and Jimmy are the co-authors of Wisdom Walks, and they share a powerful concept in their chapter “Just One Word.” Every year for 15 years before New Year ’s Day, they come up with their word for the year that will give meaning and focus to their life. They said they don’t randomly pick a word, but rather through reflection, prayer and listening to their heart the word comes to them.

I thought it was a brilliant idea. We live in a busy stressed-filled world with tons of distractions that cause us to forgo our resolutions and forget about our goals. But everyone can remember and focus upon one word that will represent the essence of what we hope to accomplish and who we want to be.

Since Dan and Jimmy do this with his wife and children as well I was inspired to do the same. I talked about the concept with my wife and kids and we all came up with our words.

My word was Purpose.

I’m going to be traveling a ton this year to deliver keynotes around the country and over time the airplanes, airports and schedule can wear me down. However by focusing on my purpose to make a difference I know that my purpose will fuel me, replenish me and keep me going on the road and at home. I know if my purpose is bigger than my challenges I’ll be as energized in June as I am in January. So my word was Purpose.

My wife’s word was Intention.

She realized she wanted to do more things with intention and be intentional about her life, her decisions and health.

My twelve year old daughter’s word was Drive.

I joke that I think my wife came up with the word for her because she needs to spend more time studying than texting friends. : )

My ten year old son came up with the word Focus.

As soon as I asked him his word, he said Focus without hesitation. He wants to focus more at school and on the tennis courts.

Doing this exercise with my family was a lot of fun and very meaningful. It’s something you can do with your team at work and your family at home too. Just imagine if everyone in your work place knew their word and they lived it each day to make themselves and their team better.

Once you come up with your word you can post it at your desk or you can even make a painting. Every New Year’s eve, Dan and Jimmy and their families each paint their word. Here’s the photo of Dan’s.

So what’s your word for this year? It’s not too late to come up with it. What word will give you focus and meaning to make 2011 your best year yet. You can share your word with me and others on our Facebook or Blog page.

I’ll also keep you posted on Dan and Jimmy releasing their new book by the end of the year on this power concept called ONE.

2010 Real Estate Stats

Residential Highlights

• 4% Increase in closed sales year over year
• 7.1% Decrease in closed sales year to date
• 26.1% Increase in average days on market (111)
• 15.5% Increase in active listings (13,941)
• 2.5% Decrease in average sold price ($274,625)

Condo/Townhome Highlights

• 4.6% Decrease in closed sales year over year
• 10.2% Decrease in closed sales year to date
• 42% Increase in days on market (131)
• 4% Increase in average sold price ($166,841)

Full report of Entire MLS

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Douglas County West (DCW)

Residential Highlights

• 23% Increase in closed sales year over year
• 6.2% Increase in closed sales year to date
• 11.8% Increase in days on market (152)
• 25.9% Decrease in absorption rate (8.4 months)
• 6.8% Decrease in average sold price ($405,297)

Condo/Townhome Highlights

• 30.8% Decrease in closed sales year over year
• 4.8% Decrease in closed sales year to date
• 34.3% Increase in average days on market (90)
• 29.2% Increase in average sold price ($193,306)

Full report of Douglas County West (DCW)

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Douglas Elbert Parker (DEP)
Residential Highlights

• 16% Increase in closed sales year over year
• 1.2% Increase in closed sales year to date
• 20.7$ Increase in days on market (146)
• 11.5% Decrease in average sold price ($336,324)

Condo/Townhome Highlights

• 35%% Increase in closed sales year over year
• 23.3% Decrease in closed sales year to date
• 190% Increase in average days on market (154)

Full report of Douglas Elbet Parker (DEP)

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Douglas Highlands Ranch Lone Tree (DHL)

Residential Highlights

• 13.3% Decrease in closed sales year over year
• 4.6% Decrease in closed sales year to date
• 26.7% Increase in average days on market (114)
• 10.8% Decrease in average sold price ($347,665)

Condo/Townhome Highlights

• 80% Increase in closed sales year over year
• 38.6% Increase in average days on market (122)
• 49.1% Decrease in aborption rate (4.4 months)
• 1% Decrease in average sold price ($274,834)

Full report of Doulgas Highlands Ranch Lone Tree (DHL)



Based on Information from Metrolist, Inc. for the period Jan 2009 through present.Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Positive Tip: 20 Tips for a Positive New Year-Jon Gordon

20 TIPS FOR A POSITIVE NEW YEAR

(Updated 2011 Version)

1. Stay Positive. You can listen to the cynics and doubters and believe that success is impossible or you can know that with faith and an optimistic attitude all things are possible.

2. When you wake up in the morning complete the following statement: My purpose is_______________________.

3. Take a morning walk of gratitude. I call it a “thank you walk.” It will create a fertile mind ready for success.

4. Instead of being disappointed about where you are think optimistically about where you are going.

5. Eat breakfast like a king, lunch like a prince and dinner like a college kid with a maxed out charge card.

6. Remember that adversity is not a dead-end but a detour to a better outcome.

7. Focus on learning, loving, growing and serving.

8. Believe that everything happens for a reason and expect good things to come out of challenging experiences.

9. Don't waste your precious energy on gossip, energy vampires, issues of the past, negative thoughts or things you cannot control. Instead invest your energy in the positive present moment.

10. Mentor someone and be mentored by someone.

11. Live with the 3 E's. Energy, Enthusiasm, Empathy.

12. Remember there’s no substitute for hard work.

13. Zoom Focus. Each day when you wake up in the morning ask: “What are the three most important things I need to do today that will help me create the success I desire?” Then tune out all the distractions and focus on these actions.

14. Implement the www.NoComplainingRule.com. Complaining is like vomiting. Afterwards you feel better but everyone around you feels sick.

15. Read more books than you did in 2010. I happen to know of a few good ones. :)

16. Get more sleep. You can’t replace sleep with a double latte.

17. Focus on “Get to” vs “Have to.” Each day focus on what you get to do, not what you have to do. Life is a gift not an obligation.

18. Each night before you go to bed complete the following statements:

I am thankful for __________.

Today I accomplished____________.

19. Smile and laugh more. They are natural anti-depressants.

20. Enjoy the ride. You only have one ride through life so make the most of it and enjoy it.

-Jon